“A flat 60% tariff on all goods from China!”

“The acquisition of U.S. Steel is a terrible idea, and I would absolutely block it.”

As you are aware, former US President Donald J. Trump has delivered the messages such as those above to the people of the United States. He has repeatedly issued statements of this nature as he continues his campaign to become the Republican Party’s nominee for the 2024 presidential election. The details of these statements are absurd, no evidence exists to suggest that their claims are feasible, and they are completely incoherent in terms of actual policy decisions. However, they do have one thing in common: they contain straightforward messages that can be easily delivered to and digested by an audience in a matter of seconds.

You may remember a similar case in Japan; former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi repeatedly and exhaustively called for the privatization of Japan’s postal system.

Both of these politicians realized that enticing and convincing their nation’s electorates would require simple, clear, and specific messaging. They knew that, in general, people are not willing to spend 10 or 20 minutes listening to the details of an argument; typically, they are only willing to listen for a few seconds. Furthermore, they were aware that listeners do not reach decisions by examining, understanding, and subsequently accepting or rejecting a speaker’s claims but instead judge these claims based on their general impressions of the speaker and his or her message. In short, both Trump and Koizumi recognized that short and simple messages are the key to generating enthusiasm.

During a recent informative workshop involving participation from an opposition party leader, I had the opportunity to listen at length to details regarding the party’s stated policies. The three pillars of their agenda were as follows.

The nation is responsible for its own security.
Create an economy that generates wage growth.
Human resource development is the key to national development.

Each of these policies was very reasonable in substance. Additionally, the party leader is a handsome intellectual, the type of person who is well-liked by many people. Furthermore, he was persuasive enough to convince me that society would be better off if his party were in power and its policies implemented. However, I could not help but feel that this leader and his party were unlikely to garner much public support or achieve political power, and I believed that the fulfillment of their stated goals would be highly unlikely.

When people with knowledge and experience come together and create policies that are necessary for the general public, the primary principles of the policies put forth by competing political parties will be very similar; today, we are not holding debates about the viability of fundamental social structures such as capitalism or communism.

Of course, the policies of competing parties will not be exactly the same. However, many individuals will not expend the time and effort required to identify small policy differences, which makes securing political dominance through the simple formulation of appropriate policies difficult. Naturally, before a political party can implement its policies, it must come to power or at least be in a position that allows it to cast a decisive vote. To achieve these conditions, a party needs seats in the legislative assembly, and gaining these seats requires votes, which brings us back to my initial point; sadly, advancing a list of just and appropriate policies does not lead to votes on its own. Personally, I could listen to discourse regarding these policies for an hour without being bothered. Unfortunately, as stated previously, many individuals are only willing to listen for a few seconds and will make decisions based on general impressions.

Due to this phenomenon, a candidate needs enthusiasm to entice or convince his or her nation’s electorate. To generate this enthusiasm, a political leader must be inflicted with some form of “delusion.” Former President Trump and former Prime Minister Koizumi both demonstrate this trait. Long ago, when he was leading the Japan Innovation Party, Toru Hashimoto also exuded such an atmosphere. (Hashimoto’s brand of “delusion” was particularly effective because, unlike Trump, he was not merely delusional, but also upright and consistent. Consequently, his retirement from politics was a disappointment for me.)

As for the opposition party leader I encountered, I thought his personality and ideas were excellent, but I did not feel that he demonstrated enough “delusion” to be an effective leader. Of course, few people possess this trait, and perhaps it is misguided to be hoping for such a candidate. Regardless, I feel that correct and appropriate policies alone are not enough to motivate the public and that only leaders who exhibit “delusion” can generate the enthusiasm necessary for the attainment of political power. For this reason, the intellectuals of the world may be forced to contend with the return of former President Trump this fall.

Hirotaka Shimizu
Chairman and CEO
Kamakura Shinsho, Ltd.